The stock market video for 5-17-12 has been posted.
5/16
A complete free sample video from 5-3-12 is posted at the bottom of this page.
Greece on brink of collapse
Housing Starts Surge 2.6% While Permits Show 7% Decline
Federal Reserve minutes: Fiscal cliff could hurt economy
Dow, S&P End Lower for 4th Day on Greece Woes
The video for 5/15/12 was posted at 6 p.m. PST and is ready for viewing on the daily market forecast page.
5/15 Eurozone Update
See a free sample video posted below.
Eurozone GDP
The eurozone dodged recession, by posting flat GDP in the first three months of 2012. The better-than-expected performance was mainly due to Germany, which beat estimates with a 0.5% increase in GDP. France was flat, while Italy shrank by 0.8%.
Italy's recession is getting worse -- with news breaking that GDP shrank by 0.8% in the first quarter of 2012. That's worse than expected.
Greece
Greece's membership of the eurozone hangs in the balance after attempts to form a unity government failed. The five leaders of Greece's main political parties met again in Athens, but failed to back a "technocratic government" that could have led the country. A second general election must now be held, which will be an effective referendum on the country's future, and that of the eurozone
Nouriel Roubini, the economics professor known as "Dr Doom", has swiftly predicted that new elections will be won by Syriza (the Coalition for the Radical Left which opposes Greece's austerity programme), and that this will lead to Greece leaving the eurozone.
Roubini argues that it would be impossible for Syriza to agree with Greece's Troika of lenders.
Over in Greece, reports are coming in that the Athens government will repay a €450m bond which matures today.
5/14
Greece Faces Big Debt Payment Tuesday: Now What?
Merkel tells Greece to back cuts or face euro exit
European leaders and financial markets braced for Greece exit from euro
The weekend video is now posted on the daily market forecast page.
Free Sample Video from 5/3/12
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5/11 extrended unployment benefits of 99 weeks ending in 8 states, and in the rest of the states by the end of the summer
JPMorgan $2 billion loss hits shares, credit, image
EU relays hope of European recovery from recession, provided budget controls remain
Extended jobless benefits cut in eight states
Economic Growth Strong Enough to Close Temporary Unemployment Insurance Program
Friday news wasn't very encouraging. Spain announced a reform of its banking system, JP Morgan announced a shocking $2bn loss, Greece (so far) has failed to form a government after the weekend's elections and there were signs of an economic slowdown in China.
Ratings agency Fitch has joined the ranks of those now expecting a new Greek election in June, with a growing risk of the country leaving the eurozone. In a statement, Fitch said:
The election or formation of a Greek government unwilling or unable to abide by the terms of the current EU-IMF programme would increase the risk of Greece leaving the eurozone. If they are required, the re-run elections will therefore be a critical event for both Greece and for the eurozone.
The implications for the eurozone of a Greek exit are highly uncertain and would depend on how it happens and the European policy response.
In the near-term, new elections in June would make it doubtful that Greece could comply with the EU-IMF's end-June deadline to propose further medium-term austerity measures worth 5.5% of GDP, although we would expect Greece to be granted an extension to that deadline. However, we think any attempt by Greece to significantly renegotiate its agreed consolidation and reform programme (to which both Pasok and New Democracy are committed) would be unacceptable to the Troika of the ECB, Eurogroup and IMF, who appear unwilling to countenance a significant easing of the programme or any increase in funding.
Fitch repeated that if Greece did leave the eurozone it would be likely to put the sovereign ratings of all the remaining eurozone member states on negative rating watch as it re-assessed the implications of a Greek exit.
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Eurozone Growth Slashed; Deficits Balloon
EU predicts 0.3 per cent eurozone economic contraction in 2012
The EC forecasts were out on Friday and they weren't too pretty.
It predicts that Spain's budget deficit will balloon to 6.4% of GDP this year compared with a previous forecast of 5.9%.
Here are some other highlights:
Portuguese deficit will be 4.7% (was 4.5%)
Greece 7.3% (7%)
Italy 2% (2.3%)
France 4.5% (5.3%)
Germany 0.9% (1%)