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10/2 How to Trade the Bearish Phase

 Learn techniques to properly trade the bearish phase in the video posted below. 

 

In the Bearish Phase, prices often move to the downward sloping 50-day moving average, offering an excellent shorting opportunity. Additionally, in the early stages of the Bearish Phase,  prices usually move back to the 200-day moving average. Usually, that occurs during the begining and middle of the Bearish Phase. Prices will also move to the 50 percent retracement of the 60-period of the high/low price channel.

 

One thing to watch for should prices rally back to the 50-day MA is volume. Volume will very often be lighter as prices pull-up towards the 50-day MA because sellers are unwilling to give up the price at higher levels. This suggests weakness and that prices will soon be heading south again.

What we are looking for to short the Bearish Phase is for price to rise on declining volume, while pushing into a key level of resistance, like the 50-day  MA or a trendline or preferably both. Hitting the 50-day MA and a trendline simultaneously increases the odds that sellers are lurking there.

 

So to put it all together, shorting opportunities occur as prices pull-up towards the 50- and 200-day MA and the mid-point 50 percent recetracement of the high/low price channel. 

 

 

 

 

 



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Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

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My Public Chart List

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

See the video and then the definitions of each of the indicators below that.

The key elements of the ichimoku chart

 

Tenkan-sen

 

Tenkan-sen (転換) calculation: (highest high + lowest low)/2 for the last 9 periods.

 

It is primarily used as a signal line and a minor support/resistance line.Tenkan Sen (blue line): This is also known as the turning line and is derived by averaging the highest high and the lowest low for the past nine periods.The Tenkan Sen is an indicator of the market trend. If the blue line is moving up or down, it indicates that the market is trending. If it moves horizontally, it signals that the market is ranging.

 

Kijun-sen

Kijun-sen (基準線) calculation: (highest high + lowest low)/2 for the past 26 periods.

This is a confirmation line, a support/resistance line, and can be used as a trailing stop line. the Kijun Sen acts as an indicator of future price movement. If the price is higher than the red line, it could continue to climb higher. If the price is below the red line, it could keep dropping.

Senkou span A

Senkou (先行) span A calculation: (Tenkan-sen + kijun-sen)/2 plotted 26 periods ahead.

Also called leading span 1, this line forms one edge of the kumo, or cloud

If the price is above the Senkou span, the top line serves as the first support level while the bottom line serves as the second support level.

If the price is below the Senkou span, the bottom line forms the first resistance level while the top line is the second resistance level.

Senkou span B

 

Senkou span B calculation: (highest high + lowest low)/2 calculated over the past 52 time periods and plotted 26 periods ahead.

 

Also called leading span 2, this line forms the other edge of the kumo.

 

Kumo

Kumo (, cloud) is the space between senkou span A and B. The cloud edges identify current and potential future support and resistance points.

The Kumo cloud changes in shape and height based on price changes. This height represents volatility as larger price movements form thicker clouds, which creates a stronger support and resistance. As thinner clouds offer only weak support and resistance, prices can and tend to break through such thin clouds.

Generally, markets are bullish when Senkou Span A is above Senkou Span B and vice versa when markets are bearish. Traders often look for Kumo Twists in future clouds, where Senkou Span A and B exchange positions, a signal of potential trend reversals.

In addition to thickness, the strength of the cloud can also be ascertained by its angle; upwards for bullish and downwards for bearish. Any clouds behind price are also known as Kumo Shadows.

Chikou span

Chikou (遅行) span calculation: today's closing price projected back 26 days on the chart.

Also called the lagging span it is used as a support/resistance aid.

If the Chikou Span or the green line crosses the price in the bottom-up direction, that's a buy signal. If the green line crosses the price from the top-down, that's a sell signal.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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