Prevously I made an error in comparing the YOY U-3 and U6 unemployment rates in part 1. I was tired and accidently compared seasonally adjusted to Not seasonally adjusted. I realize the difference, but made the error after a long day of reading and studying. I have reposted the video with the correct information showing the unemployment rate dropping YOY by .1 %. I'm sorry for the error.
Attention: I've posted 6 videos at the bottom of the page. Have a nice Labor Day Weekend!
The Summer of Recovery Did the Trick
Summer of Recovery Update: Day 79
The Summer of Recovery concludes with sales of existing homes plunging by a record -27 percent in July, housing starts were down - 31 % in July, while 283, 000 more jobs were lost during the summer. Real personal spending is only up 1.3% at an annual rate, dropping during the summer months, far lower than the 2.0% in Q2. GDP for Q2 was revised downward from 2.4 % to an anemic 1.6 %. The unemployment rate is now in its 16th consecutive month above 9 %. Intial claims remain elevated, continuing to hover around 500,000.
Auto Sales hit a 28-year low in August, Building Permits fell - 3.1% to 565K Rate in July hitting a 14-month low. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported a contraction in manufacturing in the region, with the bank’s general economic index falling to - 7.7 in August, the lowest level since August 2009.And just this morning, Institute for Supply Management reported its non-manufacturing index, which measures growth in services industries. The index came in lower than expected, at 51.5 versus economists’ expectations of a 53 reading. I could go on and on. The 'Summer of Recovery' did the trick and we owe it all to the passage of the stimulus. I hope you know that I'm being facetious. Sorry, but I have a sense of humor.
It is plain as the nose on your face, that the stimulus didn't work, it has lost more jobs than it created. It is a job killer not a job creator. Economist Paul Krugman and many others continue to call for more stimulus. They told us that if we past this monstrosity, that the unemployment rate would not exceed 8 %. After all that spending we have a net loss for jobs, not a gain, and the unployment rate is still at 9.6 %. The stimulus didn't work! Since the stimulus was past 2 1/2 millliion jobs have been lost. A perfect example of government inefficiency.
There are 14.9 million unemployed Americans. And its not looking any better once 'Recovery Summer' concludes, months of weak growth and high unemployment lie ahead. Read the stats of the latest jobs report below.
"There is little reason for optimism on the jobs front." and "the job creation in the private sector is not enough to keep up with the growth in the labor force." ------Mark Haines
Jobs Report Commentary
A lot of spin this morning on the jobs report. Nevertheless, this jobs report shows that we are not creating enough jobs to bring down the unemployment rate. We now have 16 months consecutive months with the unemployment rate above 9 %. We are quickly approaching that 19 month record made in the early 80s. I find it interesting that the economy lost 283,000 jobs during ‘Recovery Summer’ months. We didn't see the gain of 500 K jobs each month as we promised last April.
The unemployment rate rose to 9.6 %. The unemployment rate is rising because 550,000 unemployed people returned to the labor force looking for work. According to the Wall Street Journal, "The U.S. jobless rate rose to 9.6% in August, but the government’s broader measure of unemployment rose even more to 16.7%, the highest rate since April." The U-6 unemployment rate jumped to 16.7 %. We continue to see this figure hover around 17 %. The WSJ is reporting that "about 6.2 million people have been out of work longer than 27 weeks." Payrolls need to grow by about 200,000 a month in order to keep up with growth in the population and bring down unemployment.
